Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), developed and maintained by Tsinghua University since 2015, is designed to dynamically track the evolution of China’s air pollutants and CO2 emissions under the global socioeconomic, energy scenarios and China’s local mitigation policies; develop a series of China’s future emission scenarios and database; and provide emission scenarios and data to the scientific community based on the cloud computing platform, which benefits scientific research, policy assessment, and quality management towards synergistically achieving the carbon neutrality goals and the substantial air quality improvement.
Climate mitigation and environmental governance are the inherent content of China’s sustainable development. China thus proposed a series of national strategies as achieving the carbon peak by 2030, establishing ‘a beautiful China’ by 2035, and becoming carbon neutral by 2060. It is of great interest in both scientific research and policy management to coordinately obtain the carbon mitigation and substantial air quality improvement. Dynamic emission projection model with elaborative simulation of technology evolutions, along with systematic, unified, realistic and timely-updated future emission scenarios, are essential to support the scientific design of synergetic co-control pathways, and to assess their multiple impacts on climate change, environmental improvement, public health protection and social-economic development.
In the technical system that supports the management and decision-making of carbon neutrality and clean air coordinated governance, constructing a refined dynamic emission assessment model and developing a systematic and complete and reasonable future emission scenario is a reasonable design of a coordinated path for reducing pollution and carbon, and scientifically assessing climate, An important foundation for comprehensive impacts on environmental health, social economy, etc.
Anthropogenic emissions in China have been continuously rising in recent years, causing negative impacts on the environment and climate. It is of great interest in both scientific research and policy management to quantify emission fluxes and explore their relationship with human activities. Accurate, complete, and timely-updated emission inventories are essential to identify emission sources and to support policy-making and air quality management.
Under the tremendous pressure of carbon reduction and ecological environment improvement, China has released a series of mitigation policies and targets in recent years with timely responses and actions from all provinces, which would bring a wide and profound impacts on future climate, environment, and social-economic system. Meanwhile, with the fast industrialization and urbanization, air pollutants in China have been changing rapidly in terms of spatial and temporal distributions, which pose a great challenge to future emission projection on scientific quantification, dynamically updating, and high-resolution modellings. However, the systematic, localized, elaborative, dynamic emission projection models and future emission scenarios have not been established in China yet. Existing researches and datasets prevalently suffered with a series of issues as the coarse sector classification and spatial resolution, the hysteretic updating of climate and environmental policies, the divergence of historical hindcasts and future projections on emission trends and technology evolutions, which is hard to satisfy the policy-making and scientific research requirement
Over the recent years, benefited from the long-term support from National Natural Science Foundation of China, Tsinghua University Initiative Research Program, Energy Foundation China, and other scientific programs, Tsinghua University has made substantial progress in the accurate, high-resolution quantification of air pollutant emissions, localized Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) development, and detailed technology-based emission projections; established the DPEC model with its own technical characteristics and completely independent intellectual property rights; and developed a series of future emission scenarios with a systematic coverage of multiple climate and environmental mitigation targets. At present, The DPEC model can provide multi-scale gridded emission dataset online, including 10 major air pollutants and CO2 from 2015 to 2050/2060 under all DPEC emission scenarios under different climate targets and clean air actions.
In the future, our team will devote full effort to the development of the DPEC model and scenarios into an open and world-class emission scenario platform, and provide high-quality technical support for scientific research and policy-making.
- DPEC emission scenarios integrated with different climate, socioeconomic scenarios (including the RCP-SSP scenario matrix, 2℃/1.5℃ temperature raising limits, NDC pledges and carbon neutrality goals), as well as various air pollution control scenarios (including Business-As-Usual (BAU), Enhanced-control-policy (ECP), Best-Health-Effect (BHE)).
- DPEC emission database includes ten pollutants and CO2 emissions (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM2.5, PM10, BC, OC, and CO2) from nearly 2000 anthropogenic sources in mainland China.
- DPEC model integrates the top-down climate/environmental constraints and the bottom-up mitigation technology turnovers.
- DPEC model and scenarios are developed with unified methodology and dataset to assure transparency and comparability. Version management for code and data. Continuously updated.
- Provide gridded emissions online through the cloud computing platform.
The DPEC model and scenarios were developed since 2015. Two versions are available at present.
- Version v1.0 was completed in 2019. In this version, the basic technical framework of the DPEC model was constructed; the version v1.0 future emission scenarios and database were compiled.
- Version v1.1 was completed in 2021. In this version, the facility-level emission projection models for cement, iron, steel and petrochemical industry were updated; sub-models for key industries in GCAM-China were developed; and the version v1.1 future emission scenarios and database were compiled.
Supporting organizations >
The development and maintenance of the DPEC model and scenarios are sponsored by:
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Tsinghua University Initiative Research Program
- Energy Foundation China
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling