DPEC model is constructed on the Multi-resolution emission inventory for China (MEIC) model framework. Based on the source categorization of the MEIC model, the DPEC model incorporates the potential development and extension of each emission source on fuel/product types, combustion/process technologies and end-of-pipe control technologies. A comprehensive, unified, timely-update future emission classification system is established in the DPEC model, with a coverage of ~2000 detailed emission sources. According to elaborative accuracy of historical emission data in the MEIC model, a total of 12 sub-models (targeting on the coal-fired power, other fuel-fired power, heat, cement, iron and steel, industrial boiler, other industry, on-road vehicles, off-road transportation, solvent use, residential and agriculture) are established in the DPEC framework. Particularly, the sub projection model of key industries as coal-fired power, cement, iron and steel is established with detailed facility-level turnovers; that of on-road vehicle is developed as fleet-turnover model; and that of other emission sources is established with provincial-level technology distributions and turnovers. With the unified, systemic methodology framework, social-economic drive, climate and environmental policy constrains, all emission sources could dynamically multi-resolution track the evolution of China’s future air pollutants and CO2 emissions.

DPEC is coupled with two modules, namely the activity projection module driven by the IAMs and the sectoral technology-based turnover module. The former is developed with the China’s provincial energy system model in the global integrated assessment model context (GCAM-China, developed by the PNNL team), which could provide energy consumptions and product counts of each province under different social-economic development and climate targets. Through integrating key industry policies, calibrating base-year parameters, and developing feasible model interface, the resolution and accuracy of future activity projection are significantly improved, and the source classification, technology distribution, social-economic drivers of the activity projection module are fully coupled with the sectoral turnover module. The emission prediction module contains detailed turnover simulations of combustion, process and end-of-pipe control technologies.  Given current technology distributions and the technology/facility lifetime, this module could dynamically simulate future technology evolutions and distributions of all detailed emission sources under policy effects and natural decommissioning. By capturing the changes in future activity levels and technology evolutions, the DPEC model could dynamically simulate and assess future evolutions of energy-technology-emission chains under various climate and environmental policies.

DPEC developed a multi-dimensional high-resolution emission processing system to generate gridded emissions, which can support online calculations, gridding process and downloads of all future emission scenarios and datasets. The DPEC model provides high-resolution and model-ready emission inventories for air quality and forecasting models. Users can require, customize, and access demanded data on-line through the cloud-computing platform.

DPEC scenarios and database >

DPEC database version v1.0 contain six emission scenarios, namely SSP1-26-BHE, SSP1-26-ECP, SSP2-45-ECP, SSP3-70-BAU, SSP4-60-BAU and SSP5-85-BHE. These scenarios are combined from five global CMIP6 scenarios (including SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, SSP4-60, and SSP5-85) and three local pollution control scenarios (including Business-As-Usual (BAU), Enhanced-control-policy (ECP), Best-Health-Effect (BHE)). DPEC v1.0 database provides China’s future anthropogenic emissions (including SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM2.5, PM10, BC, OC, and CO2) from 2015 to 2050 under the above-mentioned six scenarios.

DPEC database version v1.1 contain six emission scenarios, namely Ambitious-pollution-Neutral-goal, Ambitious-pollution-NDC-goal, Ambitious-pollution-1.5℃-goal, Ambitious-pollution-2℃-goal, Current-goals, and Baseline. The previous four scenarios are combined from four types of socio-economic transitions under national/global climate goals (including China’s carbon neutrality goals, NDC pledges, global 1.5℃ limits, global 2℃ limits) and the Best-Health-Effect (BHE) local pollution control scenario. Current-goals is combined from NDC-consistent energy transitions and Enhanced-control-policy (ECP) pollution control scenario. Baseline is combined from SSP4-60 energy scenario and Business-As-Usual (BAU) pollution control scenario. DPEC v2.0 database provides China’s future anthropogenic emissions (including SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM2.5, PM10, BC, OC, and CO2) from 2015 to 2060 under the above-mentioned six scenarios. Compared with v1.0, v1.1 database develops and incorporates more detailed industry sub-sectors (i.e. steel, coking, aluminum smelting, other non-ferrous smelting, bricks, tiles, lime, non-metallic minerals, papermaking, food manufacturing, methanol, ethylene, other chemical products, etc.) and off-road sources (i.e. construction machinery, agricultural machinery, mining machinery, etc.); moreover, major energy outputs from GCAM-China are endogenously calibrated with China Energy Statistical Yearbook in v1.1.